Our investment strategies are guided by the footprints left by people pursuing new ideas. That is, the prices they set in the market.
...is constantly evolving. An old photo is unmistakably an old photo. The things we do, the things we use and the things we value today are not the things we did, used and valued in the past.
It all starts with an idea. The idea to roast a coffee bean to create an invigorating drink. The idea to make wagons ride on a rail track. The idea to connect computers into an internet. The idea to use wind as a clean source of energy. Or the idea that windmills pollute the horizon. The idea that countries can prosper by working together, opening their borders and sharing a currency. Or the idea to close borders to keep out threats.
It is all just an idea. It has no impact if nobody buys it, nobody uses it, nobody votes for it. But every time people do pursue a new idea, the world changes. Our world is shaped by people pursuing new ideas.
Our markets are fueled by people pursuing new ideas.
...are the places where supply meets demand. Where people willing to buy meet people willing to sell. Some people buy to fulfill their immediate demand. Others sell to offload their supply. Some people buy or sell to offset their risk. Others buy or sell to take on that risk, anticipating expected demand and expected supply. Our markets are in a constant search for equilibrium.
A reached equilibrium, however, typically does not persist. Time and again, all sorts of factors temporarily disrupt supply or demand. And even more importantly, people pursuing new ideas create new flows of demand and new flows of supply. Our markets are fueled by people pursuing new ideas.
...navigate these flows of supply and demand. As investors we are in the market to take on risk. We realize that in order to be rewarded, we have to maneuver our positions in the direction where future demand and future supply will meet. These future levels of supply and demand, however, are unknown to us. Just like they are unknown to everybody else. What guides us?
Given that our world changes, we know that markets tend not to revert to a previous equilibrium. We recognize the importance of ideas. Although we might occasionally have strong personal opinions about some of those ideas, we realize that our opinions do not matter. It is the force of people pursuing new ideas that counts. Trying to counter that force does not pay. In our trading we respect that force. Therefore, our investment strategies are guided by the footprints left by people pursuing new ideas. That is, the prices they set in the market.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.